20190517-4 Year Journal - Hodl Yourself -Trump declared another state of emergency
4 Year Jounal (Hodl Yourself – Already):
-Back in Jan, he said the low was either in or very close and you should be fully positioned in terms of BTCs. He repeated the same message again in April.
-But many people still want to time the market to get some discounts. But even if the market pulls back to 6000 level, they are probably still not mentally prepared to pull the trigger. They are not aware how high the bull market will go and trying to time the bottom will cost then big in the end.
-The reason is when the target for BTC is 40X the current price, you really should not care about paying 1000-2000 dollar more. It’s more important that you establish your full position now.
-He didn’t expect the market will break 6000 that fast!
-The dip probably will be around 6300. But definitely not anything below 5000. Anyone that can get BTC@6400 should feel really good now.
-It’s not unusual to see a dip of 20% (6640) or 30% (5810) in a bull market. But he feels that right now if you are looking for anything more than 20%, you might not get it.
-Since inception of BTC, we have seen 3 parabolic runs of 100X of BTC. He believes we already started the 4th 100X run.
-In a bull market if you want to add position, you can try to add on dip more than 30%. This will be a good strategy.
-But don’t try to timing tops in an up treand. It is VERY difficult to do and the market often times will go much further than what you think.
-Don’t try to be a trader and timing the market. You will end up lose BIG and miss out the big profit.
-Below is the 153 Week chart of the last bull run from July2015 to Dec 2017 :
@1X move or more and 30%-40% drop is very consistent going forward.
@The 1X move we just saw from 4000 to 8000 is NOT unusual based on the history of BTC’s last bull run.
@The blue and red box were 30%+ moves either up or down. Blue was up and Red was down. The boxes covered a period of 3 or four weeks. There were roughly 25 situations (probably more) where BTC moved at least 30%.
@Therefore, don’t try to trade in and out of the market. You will end up gaining small and losing BIG.
-Try to focus at BTC’s market cap and not its price. Right now, the market cap is 128 billion and that is nothing compared to other asset or bond markets. At its last peak, BTC sat at 300 billion market cap and that was still nothing! To put things in perspective, gold’s market cap is at 8 trillion. (28:30).
-His BTC market cap prediction: The worst market cap for BTC at the end of the 4 year cycle is 1 trillion with its respective price @$56K. Moderate scenario=> 4 trillion level where BTC@200K. Eventually, in the middle of the decade, BTC => 8 trillion market cap matching gold. (Wendy: that is assuming gold’s market cap remains stable at 8 trillion.)
William Mount (President Declares Another State of Emergency):
-President Donald Trump declared on Wednesday a national emergency over threats to American technology, which was followed by the Commerce Department adding China’s Huawei Technologies to its Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) Entity List.
-Mount said China has backdoor on every chip that they made. US military now completely depends on Chinese chips. In a recent military exercise, they shut down our tanks, armored personnel carriers, planes, carriers, trains and ships.
-Trump said the US needs to make its own chips.
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