20190326-Lukas-Bracing for the next BTC Sell-ff


Bob Lukas (Bracing for the next Bitcoin Sell-off):

Short term View:

-We are at Day 43 of a 60 Day cycle (starting point around mid-Dec).

-4:23 In a bear market, a choppy、sideway market,  we need to be defensive when the current 60 Day cycle goes beyond the midpoint which is Day 30.     That’s because for a year and half, the pattern (he called “ Left trend slated” ) has been ,within a cycle,  the top will occur before the midpoint.   It takes few days to reach the top but more days to decline. 


-Right now we have a Day 18 high that hasn’t been exceeded in this 60 Day Cycle.  There is a little uptrend developing but it is lacking significant volume.   There is no apparent momentum or buying pressure.


-If this is a real new bull uptrend ahead, by Day 43, it would have already broken out significantly.






-One possible scenario is we can still break the Day 18 high and reach around 4100, but it will mostly be a fake bull since he expects a 4 year cycle low in April.    He doesn’t believe the Dec 2018 low was the 4 year cycle low.


-The 4 year cycle low is about 3125 that happened in Dec 2018.   The support before that would be the Feb low of 3300.


-His favorite pattern is we drop to Feb low for a while then further down to retest the Dec support, then move up.


-10:35 If we drop from current level of 4000 to Dec low of 3100, that will be a 20% drop, enough to create a V shaped sling shot、 up type of action， into 4000 range and maybe even 5000.


-The ultimate bearish scenario:  We get a flush – very significant, heavy volume sell-off that could be marked as 4 year cycle low.   We will drop down to and retest the Dec low and then drop even further down in a short time, then have a big V shaped recovery.


-11;33 Most bear markets either end in very wide basing double bottoms type pattern or in a V pattern.   If this bear market ends in the wide basing double bottoms pattern, it will take a while and well into summer.   If it ends in a V, it’s a lot faster.


-He would rather see a big V shape that will bring an end to the bear market once and for all and get us up to the 5000-6000 range and retest the resistance in the 6000s much sooner.


-14:02 Right now his conviction is that we are going to be heading lower to some extent and then to the 4 year cycle low in April.



Long Term View:

-20:17 For long term investor who are looking to accumulate to a full position, we are looking at the four year cycle low.   It either was the Dec 2018 low or may be coming in April this year.   Be prepared.





-We should be happy with accumulating BTC in 3000s range.


-Even if another low is coming in April, he suggests people to accumulate to a full position now and not trying to catch the bottom.


-For now, just prepare mentally for a decline here.  But not to sell, not to panic.

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