20190116-When does the recession starts?

Daily Reckoning (When does the recession starts?): 

-Global growth is coming to a crawl:

-Chinese exports have plunged to 2-yr low.  December imports dropped 7.6% reflecting weaken domestic demand.

             -European factory output is at 3-year lows

            -US growth will drop to 1% by 2019’s 3rd Qtr.

-Growth of global central bank balance sheets was negative since last August – tightening of money supply (M1)

How to tell when the recession really starts?

-Seeing the global economy is slowing down, the Fed dropped its planned hike in March.  Later hikes are also in question.  

-However, the next time when it is forced to cut rates again due to global slowdown, that is the sign that recession starts.  Past studies showed that the past three recessions followed within 90 days of the first rate cut that ended a rate hike cycle.   So watch out when the Fed announce a rate cut instead of rate hike in the future.